In support of the Integrated Signature Management (ISM) program at DRDC Atlantic, the Operational Research group is developing a model to assess the benefits of signature reduction of a defending ship. Within this mandate and as a first step, we have built a stochastic simulation to determine the Measures Of Effectiveness (MOEs) of a warfare scenario where a ship defends against multiple threats with multiple defensive systems. The simulation is designed with the aim of comparing the MOEs of a Canadian Patrol Frigate (CPF) as a function of distinct signatures. This simulation simulates the outcomes of a battle and requires inputs such as the probability of detection, the probability of track initiation, the probability of seduction and the probability of a hit/miss etc. The underlying framework of the simulation can be used to analyze torpedo defence, mine defence, maritime air defence as well as soft kill and hard kill capabilities. In addition, it can assess the trade off in terms of vulnerability of the defence between the reduction of one of its signatures and the rise of another. This report describes the implementation of the underlying algorithms which make use of the concept of recursivity and the notion of a decision tree. To demonstrate the applicability of this simulation, we provide examples where a ship defends against multiple threats with multiple interceptors.
